Am I a New Fool in the Bull Market? Am I an Investment Genius or a Lucky Amateur?

Krishna Hari Nepal

Sharesansar commends the author's honesty. Investment gurus tend to mushroom in a bull market, and it is difficult to distinguish valuable grain from useless chaff. Warren Buffett put it best: "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked."

As a new investor in NEPSE, luck always favors me since I entered the market at the bull run. I don’t know anything about the market but I am earning. Yes, my investment has doubled and I am still making a good profit. But somewhere inside my heart, there is dissatisfaction and guilt because my earnings came despite my lack of skill. I juggled between sectors frequently and booked profits immediately. I don’t know anything about company fundamentals, I don’t know how to look at the charts. The only thing I know is to buy and sell stocks in the TMS.

Will this period of luck continue forever? If yes, I will be a billionaire very soon.

This is a fact, many people think like that. Will the bull run persist forever? How long will luck be in my favor? I follow a popular influencer of the Nepalese stock market. And his decision has always made me profitable. They tell me the buy point and they tell me the selling point and I always make a profit of around 15-20% in each trade.

There are more than 100,000 active investors in the market. How many of them are like me? How long will investors like me exist in the market? Do they believe the same as me? Are they also profiting like me? Have investors like us made NEPSE a poker house instead of an investment platform?

Sometimes, they talk about Financial Statements, EPS, Net Worth, PE ratio, Price movements, and also some indicators from charting software like Moving Average, MACD, RSI, Bollinger bands but I am hardly able to pronounce their name, let alone understand and interpret them.

I am here for almost a year but all I know is there is some reputed person who comes live on social media and says this stock is good and these are bad. They sometimes come to the same point and sometimes they seem to be having a cold war among each other. One group refers to technical analysts as Dharke Maharaj, often poking fun at them saying “Dharka korera ke hunchha raw?” The other group is equally disagreeable, often making fun of 10 kittey investors or ignorant rich folks who do not know the first letter of an investment strategy.

I wish I will able to make some profit by analyzing on my own. I wish I will able to trade forever. I wish I will learn something. I wish I will not be a new fool in the market.

Article by Krishna Hari Nepal