How Increasing Temperatures In Nepal May Affect the Country's Economy
In recent years, Nepal has seen a gradual increase in its temperatures, seemingly reaching a new high in 2023. Places like Okhaldhunga, Sunsari, Illam, and Nawalparasi have registered the highest recorded temperatures in their history. There has been a gradual increase in the maximum temperature in Nepal over the past 80 years.
This is a consequence of rising global temperatures caused by global warming due to increased carbon emissions. Many other erratic climatic events, such as heatwaves, unusual rainfall, and snowfall patterns, have been observed as a result.
This is concerning for the nation as Nepal is considered one of the five countries most vulnerable to climate change. Furthermore, such rising temperatures may cause a massive economic downturn as they influence major industries in the country.
The Terai region faced extreme heatwaves this year, harming the agricultural production of the region as heatwaves severely damage and hamper the growth of crops. Terai, known as the granary of Nepal, produces 80% of all paddy in the country, and heatwaves in Terai will definitely lessen the economic output of the nation. Furthermore, it adversely affects the number one source of income for many people in the nation. As an agricultural nation, 60% of the country's workforce and 25% of its GDP depend on agriculture.
90% of crop losses in the country are caused due to weather-related factors, with 40% of the losses owed to droughts and heatwaves. Agriculture in Nepal is largely manual, and heat stress can critically cause a fall in agricultural productivity, with about 84% of the farmers self-reporting moderate or severe heat stress during the last five years.
Moreover, the heat has caused streams to dry up and resulted in unusual precipitation patterns. Thus, irrigation sources many farmers depend on are being compromised, further reducing the agricultural output of the nation. On top of that, soil erosion caused by the heat not only reduces the fertility of the land but also increases the chances of landslides in the region.
Currently, doctors have advised people to refrain from going out during the day, which further impacts the economic productivity of the nation. Similarly, people are experiencing various heat-related illnesses, such as heat stroke, heat exhaustion, heat cramps, and heat syncope. Schools and health centers have also closed down in the Terai region.
In addition, economic units in the country are failing to function properly at their maximum capacity, bringing down economic productivity.
Tourism is another industry that has been hit hard by the increasing temperature in the country. Numerous glaciers in the Himalayan region are melting, causing an increased risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), which are not only threatening for the natives but also the tourism industry. Besides, the once pristine snow-covered mountains are now bare. Additionally, the melting of snow and glaciers has caused floods in downstream rivers as well, with floods causing a loss of 60,716.6 million in 2017 alone.
Similarly, these floods pose a risk for hydropower systems built in said rivers, damaging one of the most important sources of energy production in the nation. In 2021, 26 hydropower plants were damaged due to floods and landslides, resulting in losses of up to Rs 10 billion.
Courtesy:The Himalayan Times
The higher temperatures in the nation would also discourage tourists from coming into the country and engaging in various adventurous outdoor activities that Nepal is famous for.
The rising temperature in the country, caused by climate change, has significantly impacted two of the biggest industries in the country: agriculture and tourism. Such a downturn will undoubtedly harm the economic condition of the nation. The downturn in agricultural output will force us to depend on imports more, while at the same time, we will lose a big source of foreign income in the form of tourism, increasing the already large trade deficit held by our country.
A study from the Asian Development Bank shows that due to global warming, Nepal will face economic losses worth 2.2% of its annual GDP by 2050, which will increase to 9.9% by the end of this century. To mitigate such economic losses, the study suggests Nepal spend up to USD 118 million every year on countering the harm brought by such extreme climatic conditions.
In conclusion, the quality of life of the citizens will be markedly affected, with many losing their sources of incFollowing articles were referened in preparation of the article: ome. Calamities such as soil erosion, landslides, and forest fires will be much more frequent, causing further harm to the citizens. Heat-related illnesses and the inability to go outside and work will also dampen the economy of the nation.
The following articles and reports were referred in preparation for the article:
Impact of climate change on agricultural production: A case of Rasuwa District, Nepal
Nepal confronts record-high temperatures and hostile climate change impacts
Nepal May See 10% GDP Loss From Glacier Melts, Climate Extremes - Report
Soaring temperatures at Kanyam Tea Estate break 50-year record, Dumkauli hottest in 44 years
The Impact of Climate Change on Nepalese Tourism
WHEN THE CLIMATE BECOMES A THREAT: Evidence of Climate Change Induced Loss and Damage in Nepal
Authored by Bishesh Shrestha | Edited by Aashish Chaudhary
Bishesh Shrestha is an intern at our company. Shrestha is a recent International Baccalaureate (IB) graduate from Lalitpur-based Ullens School. He possesses a keen interest in the realms of finance and economics.
Interested in Bishesh Shrestha's past contributions? Access his previous work here: How Low Taxation Rates of Cigarette and Tobacco Products Affect the Country?
