Stock Market Since It’s All-time High. Will It Get Back Again?

~Samikshya Wagley

Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) is the only securities trading platform in Nepal. NEPSE's primary goal is to provide government and corporate assets with free marketability and liquidity by enabling transactions on its trading floor through members, and market intermediaries such as brokers and market makers. On January 13, 1994, NEPSE debuted the trading floor.

“The stock market is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient”.

                                                                                               -Warren Buffett

Equities are a very volatile asset class and require a lot of patience and tenacity to continue investing in or holding equity/equity funds, even if the market is flat or long-term down. Impatient investors put money into the market and reduce withdrawals. Patient investors will be rewarded for their patience as prices rise over time. The market almost always favors patients rather than inpatients.

The NEPSE index increased by 0.80% on the first trading day of the week ending May 8, 2022. The NEPSE index, which includes subfamilies excluding the increase in commercial banks and microfinance, closed at 2,256.54 with a turnover of Rs 1,326,421,671.7, up 17.95 points.

On August 18, 2021, the NEPSE had set a new all-time high at the closing index of 3,198.60 with a turnover of Rs 21,313,489,269.00 in its history. As a result, NEPSE appears to have lost 29.45% of its value since its all-time high.

NEPSE has seen a lot of red over the past few months. There is a difference of 942.06 points from the all-time high of the Nepal Stock Exchange Index so far. A total of 41 shares are traded below 50% of the closing price on August 18, 2021.

S.N.

Symbol

LTP

Percentage Decline

Sector

18th Aug 2021

8th May 2022

1

EDBL

          1,108.00

            390.00

64.80

Development Banks

2

NABBC

             945.00

            351.90

62.76

Development Banks

3

CORBL

          1,030.00

            438.00

57.48

Development Banks

4

KSBBL

             845.00

            413.00

51.12

Development Banks

5

GRDBL

             520.00

            260.00

50.00

Development Banks

6

GUFL

          1,299.00

            427.30

67.11

Finance

7

MFIL

          1,370.00

            460.00

66.42

Finance

8

SFCL

             685.00

            262.00

61.75

Finance

9

NFS

             765.00

            295.00

61.44

Finance

10

ICFC

          1,109.70

            464.00

58.19

Finance

11

CFCL

             729.00

            315.00

56.79

Finance

12

RLFL

             712.50

            321.00

54.95

Finance

13

PFL

             853.00

            385.00

54.87

Finance

14

MPFL

             639.90

            297.00

53.59

Finance

15

GMFIL

             670.00

            325.90

51.36

Finance

16

UPCL

             610.00

            235.00

61.48

Hydro Power

17

UNHPL

             560.00

            230.00

58.93

Hydro Power

18

UMHL

             593.00

            268.20

54.77

Hydro Power

19

GHL

             509.00

            232.00

54.42

Hydro Power

20

API

             630.00

            290.00

53.97

Hydro Power

21

CHL

             668.00

            308.00

53.89

Hydro Power

22

AKJCL

             492.40

            230.30

53.23

Hydro Power

23

MHNL

             685.00

            322.00

52.99

Hydro Power

24

NGPL

          1,255.00

            591.00

52.91

Hydro Power

25

RURU

          1,770.00

            838.00

52.66

Hydro Power

26

JOSHI

             472.00

            224.00

52.54

Hydro Power

27

NHPC

             498.00

            242.00

51.41

Hydro Power

28

SPDL

             717.90

            349.80

51.27

Hydro Power

29

KKHC

             490.00

            240.80

50.86

Hydro Power

30

HURJA

             623.00

            306.60

50.79

Hydro Power

31

KPCL

             840.00

            417.00

50.36

Hydro Power

32

AKPL

             802.20

            401.00

50.01

Hydro Power

33

HIDCL

             574.00

            239.00

58.36

Investment

34

NLIC

          1,882.00

            898.00

52.28

Life Insurance

35

ALICL

          1,455.00

            709.00

51.27

Life Insurance

36

HDL

          7,535.00

         3,459.00

54.09

Manufacturing And Processing

37

SHIVM

          1,793.00

            848.00

52.70

Manufacturing And Processing

38

NSLB

          1,949.00

            931.00

52.23

Microfinance

39

GILB

          2,614.00

         1,305.00

50.08

Microfinance

40

IGI

          1,235.00

            512.00

58.54

Non-Life Insurance

41

STC

          9,870.00

         3,930.00

60.18

Trading

NEPSE is trading with the maximum loss of 67.11% on GUFL and 66.42% on MFIL, both shares are classified in the financial sector, while the development bank GRDBL loses exactly 50% from LTP as of August 18, 2021. These stocks are down more than 50% as NEPSE is down 29.45%. These are high beta stocks and can benefit trading due to price volatility but at higher risk.

Beta is a term that quantifies the expected movement of stocks in relation to market movements. If the beta is greater than 1.0, it means that the stock is more volatile than the wider market, and if the beta is less than 1.0, it means that the company is less volatile. Short-term risk is probably better measured by beta than long-term risk.

Sector-wise percentage decline in sub-indices.

Sub-indices

18th August 2021

8th May 2022

Percentage Decline

Finance

3,194.32

1,651.48

48.30

Trading

3,818.41

2,024.78

46.97

Investment

123.24

74.20

39.79

Development Bank

6,288.35

3,935.47

37.42

Hydropower

3,864.44

2,516.17

34.89

Life Insurance

17,745.81

11,782.97

33.60

NEPSE

3,198.60

2,256.54

29.45

Non-Life Insurance

14,323.71

10,016.90

30.07

Manufacturing & processing

7,474.66

5,333.91

28.64

Banking

2,100.26

1,532.20

27.05

Microfinance

5,940.30

4,577.38

22.94

Hotel and Tourism

3,636.66

2,953.21

18.79

Others

2,044.43

1,738.61

14.96

Mutual Fund

16.91

15.33

9.34

Low beta indices, like banking, hotel and tourism, microfinance, manufacturing and processing, and others, as well as mutual funds, have reduced risk and are hence better for long-term investing. These sectors appear to be less volatile. Similarly, as the percentage change in indices is bigger than the percentage change in the NEPSE Index, which signifies strong price fluctuation, trade, development banks, hydropower, finance, non-life insurance, life insurance, and investment may be favorable for trading.

Some investors are concerned when the market begins to fall. However, there are many ways to take advantage of the market downturn, so you don't have to act out of fear. Learn to stay calm and trade at falling prices. In the downmarket, finding dividend stocks is a great way to find value. A company's stock price can go down, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the company's fundamentals are meaningless. If your company's balance sheet is strong, you can pay dividends.

A fall in the stock market will reduce the value of both fundamentally strong and fundamentally weak stocks, but a fundamentally healthy company could recover. If you can find a strong company, price cuts can be a great buying opportunity.

Dear reader, what do you think, Will ATH price Get Back Again?