Summary of the Last Week of Year 2078: A Look Into Vital Data and Market Movers

Fri, Apr 15, 2022 2:32 PM on Weekly Analysis, Latest,

-ShareSansar

Part 1: Rundown and Technical Analysis

The market was open only for 3 trading days this week. NEPSE remained closed on Sunday on the occasion of Ram Nawami and on Thursday on the occasion of the Nepalese New Year. The market is closed on Fridays and Saturdays every week.

The NEPSE index closed at 2,415.25 this week after a loss of 49.11 points (-1.99%). The index had closed at 2,464.36 last week with a loss of 3.14% from the week before that.

This week, the index went as high as 2,508.88 and as low as 2,367.02, hence witnessing volatility of 141.86 points. In the previous week, the index had seen a volatility of 129.57 points.

Analysis of Trend

The NEPSE index is down around 10.8% compared to the same date last year. It is down 24.36% from the all-time high of 3,198.60 created around eight months ago. The index is 9.97% below the most recent pivot high.

Candlestick Charting and Volume

On the weekly candlestick chart, this week's market movement has formed a long red candle with
comparable shadows on both sides. Last week, the candlestick on the weekly chart was a long red candle with a long lower shadow.

The highest intraday loss was 44.56 points on Monday while the highest, and the only, intraday gain was 30.24 points on Wednesday.

Volume was the highest on Monday when the index lost 44.56 points.

Momentum Indicators

The relative strength index (RSI) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or index. Traditional interpretation and usage of the RSI are that values of 70 or above indicate that a security is becoming overbought or overvalued and may be primed for a trend reversal or corrective pullback in price. An RSI reading of 30 or below indicates an oversold or undervalued condition.

The RSI reading on the daily timeframe is 33.75. Meanwhile, the RSI reading on the weekly chart is 38.72.

A slight diversion has been seen in the RSI in relation to the index on the daily chart, thus hinting toward the possibility of a reversal.

On the other side of things, the MACD line is still negative, i.e. below zero in the daily timeframe, with the MACD reading at -65.34, a gradual decline throughout the week. The MACD line is below the signal line.

Price Action

The index gained only on the last trading day on Wednesday. However, this does not allow chart-readers to be instantly optimistic about a reversal.

The index penetrated below the 0.786 Fibonacci level drawn between the two most-recent significant pivot extremes on the daily candlestick chart. Although some technical analysts put too much emphasis on these retracement zones, the analyst at hand prefers to adhere to this quote:

"Anticipating retracement levels can be somewhat hazardous, and the trade-off between the amount of retracement desired and what may actually occur is usually unanticipated. Thus, a rough estimate from previous retracements, support and resistance zones, and the location of the longer trend line is probably the best information for an estimate rather than the mechanical percentage numbers derived from various formulas."

The 2,350 to 2,370 zone may act as the nearest support.

Part 2: Insight into Important Data

More than 1.22 crores unit shares worth Rs 5.26 Arba have been traded through 1.01 lakh transactions this week. The current market capitalization of NEPSE stands at Rs. 3,426,108.82 million.

**NEPSE index and Sub-indices performance: (Increment based on previous week's close)**

The NEPSE index declined by 1.99% this week. All the sectors lost this week.

Stocks with the highest monthly Beta (Hydropower, Development Bank, Finance)

The top 3 companies with the highest beta are Himalayan Power Partner Limited (HPPL), Samling Power Company Limited (SPC), and Union Hydropower Company Limited (UNHPL) with 2.47 and 2.16 and 2.15 beta values respectively.

Top Ten Gainers of the week:

Nesdo Sambridha Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited (NESDO) is the top gainer of this week. NESDO closed at Rs. 2262.7 with Rs. 562.7 (33.10%) increment.