Weekly Technical Analysis of NEPSE index. Know all major support and resistance level for next week ( with video)

Summary of NEPSE index movement of this week:

The market fluctuated less this week. On the first and second trading days the index had gained 8.11 points and 12.27 points respectively and on the last three trading days, it lost 18.97 points in total.  The index had opened at 1,191.98 points and closed at 1,193.39 points by losing 1.41 points (0.11%).

Technical Analysis
The indicators we have used here are Candlestick Pattern, volume chart, Relative Strength Index (RSI), Exponential moving averages (EMA), Bollinger bands and MACD for the prediction. The chart we have used here is a candle-stick pattern of one day time period.

Candle Stick Pattern:

On daily candlestick no special pattern was observed. The body of the bearish candle is relatively smaller than the bullish one this week.
On weekly candlestick, a type of gravestone dozi pattern has formed and the dozi shows an indecisiveness between the buyers and sellers. However, a gravestone dozi indicates that the selling pressure is relatively higher.

Exponential Moving average (EMA):

Chart below shows the EMA's with the NEPSE index main chart. We have used three major EMA’s of 5 days (red line), 20 days (green line), and 180days (black line) period.

EMA's are trading above the NEPSE index and that shows long-term, mid-term and short-term trends are bearish.  EMA is supporting the downtrend.

Bollinger Band: Bollinger band is shown below with NEPSE index main chart.

The upper band and lower band are converging and the middle line is trading above the NEPSE index. From the Bollinger Band indicator, the signal for a low volatile bearish trend was observed.

Volume: Volume chart is shown below with the NEPSE index main chart.

The volume was relatively small on the first 4 trading days but it has increased abruptly on Thursday to around 52 crore.This week, strong signal was not observed from the volume chart but the average volume of the last two week was comparatively high which does support an uptrend.

Relative Strength Index (RSI):

The RSI chart with NEPSE index main chart is shown below. The purple line shows the RSI line and the two horizontal line shows the over-bought and over-sold level.

The RSI line is at around 40 level and the no clear divergence was observed. From RSI strong signal was not observed.

MACD: Chart below shows the Moving Average Convergence & Divergence with the NEPSE index main chart. MACD is used to predict the market trend.
 
The MACD line is in the negative zone further the MACD line is above the signal line. MACD is indicating that the overall trend is bearish at the same time it is supporting an reversal of the current mid-term trend.

Conclusion:  Majority of indicators are supporting a bearish trend but the strong signal was not observed.

Prediction: So we predict a bearish dominating side-ways market next week.

Major Support and resistance level:
The strong support for the NEPSE index is still in the range of 1170-1130 points and major resistance is in the range of 1244-1285. Further the psychological level of 1200 can also act as the resistance.

1175 points, which was the highest point of NEPSE index on 2008, can act as the crucial support level this week.

Support and Resistance according to week’s Pivot points
The pivot point for this week is 1200
1st Resistance- 1208 points               1st Support -1185 points        
2nd Resistance- 1222.87 points         2nd Support -1177.13 points
This week’s market statics
Total Turnover- Rs 1.45 arba
Total traded shares – 47.54 lakhs
Total transaction- 15128
The turnover has decreased by more than 31% compared to last week’s turnover.
Open- 1191.98 points                Closed- 1193.39 points
High – 1214.85 points               low- 1191.98 points
This week’s market summary in Tabular form.
Movement of Indices and Sub-indices
 
Top 10 Gainers and Losers of the week
 
Top 10 Companies with the Highest Turnover, Transaction and Traded shares
 
Top Buy and Top Sell companies of Top 10 broker of the week